Journal of Optimization and Supply Chain Management

Journal of Optimization and Supply Chain Management

Aircraft Assignment under Demand Uncertainty: A Stochastic MILP Optimization Model for Private Jet Operators

Document Type : ODSIE 2025

Authors
Duygu Nur Arslan
Senar Nur Yoğurtcu
Kıvılcım Naz Böke
Syed Shah Sultan Mohiuddin Qadri
Department of Industrial Engineering, Çankaya University, Ankara, Türkiye
10.22034/ISS.2026.10263.1076
Abstract
Objective: This paper addresses the aircraft assignment problem faced by small-scale private jet operators operating under uncertain demand conditions. To support effective decision-making, a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed with the objective of maximizing expected profit while incorporating realistic operational and financial constraints.
Methods: The model considers a simplified yet representative fleet of three aircraft serving five destinations over a planning horizon. Passenger demand is modeled through three discrete demand scenarios—high, medium, and low sales—each associated with a predefined probability to capture uncertainty. Key constraints include aircraft range limitations, seat capacity, maximum allowable flight assignments per aircraft, and an overall monthly operational budget. The objective function maximizes expected scenario-based revenues minus operating costs using binary aircraft–route assignment decisions.
Results: Computational results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively support aircraft assignment and operational planning under uncertain demand conditions. The findings show that the model helps operators analyze the trade-offs between expected profitability and aircraft resource utilization while satisfying operational and environmental limitations
Conclusion: The study presents a practical and flexible optimization framework for private jet scheduling and assignment problems. The proposed stochastic MILP model provides valuable decision support for small-scale jet operators and contributes toward bridging the gap between conventional airline optimization approaches and the operational requirements of private aviation services.
Keywords
aircraft assignment
stochastic optimization
demand uncertainty
stochastic demand
flight scheduling
profit maximization
Subjects
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Journal of Optimization and Supply Chain Management
Volume 3, Issue 1
Winter 2026
Pages 57-69